Villar keeps lead, Erap jumps to 2nd in SWS survey

Noli falls from 2nd to 4th place

MANILA - Sen. Manuel Villar kept his lead in a June 2009 leadership poll of the Social Weather Stations (SWS), while former president Joseph Estrada made a huge 12% gain that pushed him to second best leader to succeed President Arroyo in 2010.

In the nationwide SWS second quarter survey released Wednesday by Businessworld, Villar was the top pick of respondents with one out of every 3 respondents choosing him as the "best leader to succeed President Arroyo in 2010."

Estrada jumped to second place, overtaking Vice-President Noli de Castro, after he went up from 13% in May 2009 to 25% in June 2009.

Villar kept his lead in the June 2009 survey with 33% of respondents choosing him as best leader to succeed. His rating jumped by 4% from 29% in May 2009. De Castro was in second place in May 2009 with 21%.

De Castro's ratings in the SWS survey on "best leader to succeed President Arroyo in 2010" has dropped from 31% in December 2008 to 27% in February 2009 to 21% in May 2009 to 19% in 2009. He fell from first place last December to a statistical third-place tie in June 2009.

The SWS survey was conducted between June 19 and 22. The May 2009 SWS survey on the same question was commissioned by Villar.

The survey question was: "Sa ilalim ng kasalukuyang Konstitusyon, ang termino ni Pangulong Arroyo ay hanggang sa taong 2010 lamang at magkakaroon ng halalalan para sa pagka-pangulo sa Mayo 2010. Sinu-sino sa palagay ninyo ang mga magagaling na lider na dapat pumalit kay Pangulong Arroyo bilang Presidente?"

Survey respondents, numbering a total of 1,500 people, were allowed to name up to 3 people.

Chiz, Mar gain, too

Villar and Estrada were followed in the June 2009 survey by Senators Manuel Roxas III and Francis Escudero, who were tied in third place with 20% rating.

Escudero made a respectable gain of 5% from 15% in May 2009. Roxas gained 5% from February 2009. De Castro fell to 4th place from being tied in first place with Villar in February 2009, with only 19% of respondents in June 2009 saying they would like to see him in Malacañang next year.

Sen. Loren Legarda was at 5th place with 15%, statistically the same as her May 2009 rating of 14%. Legarda has lost a large number of points compared to her 25% rating back in February.

Possible administration bets such as Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro and Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA) chair Bayani Fernando hardly gained and stayed near the bottom of the survey. Fernando was chosen by only 1% while Teodoro was chosen by 0.8% in the June 2009 survey.

Pampanga Gov. Ed Panlilio also stayed near the bottom of the survey with only 0.8% choosing him in June 2009 as the best leader to succeed President Arroyo in 2010.

President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo was chosen by only 2% in May 2009 and only 1% in June 2009, an indication that the public don't want her to stay in power beyond 2010.

Reactions

Villar, in an interview on Wednesday over radio dzMM, said the survey results were "heart-warming." Estrada was also elated by the results.

“This is heart-warming. It certainly invigorates me to work harder. A lot of our kababayans need our help here and around the world,” Villar said in a statement on the results of the survey.

Estrada, for his part, said in an interview: “I’m very much elated...although I have not declared yet that I am a candidate, I’m a already at a certain place… number 2? I’m very happy, hanggang sa ngayong pinapakita ng ating mga kababayan ang kanilang sumusuporta sa atin.”

Legarda said she is skeptical of the survey results, saying it could be another commissioned survey by Villar.

The SWS, however, said the survey was not commissioned and is part of their tracking of the political climate in the country.

Despite this, Malacañang said people should be careful of survey results.

Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita, in his weekly press conference, said that there could be many things that could happen from now until the elections in 2010, and people should take the survey results cautiously.

Political analyst Ramon Casiple said the dip in de Castro's ratings could be temporary since he has not yet formally declared if he will run in 2010 while Legarda's rating was due to lack of strong support.

Casiple said de Castro's rating could rise if he formally announces his bid.

Casiple added that politicians should act fast and bare their plans early. With a report from RG Cruz, ABS-CBN News